India’s Strategic Preparedness: Agni-4 Missile Test and Changing Regional Dynamics

Recent Developments in India’s Defense Strategy and Regional Relations:

Recently, you might have noticed that India’s Defense Minister openly stated that our armed forces must be prepared for the “unexpected.” This addition of the term “unexpected” is very significant. He emphasized keeping an eye on what’s happening in our neighboring countries, as something unexpected could happen suddenly, and we must be ready for it. Following this, we saw India successfully test the Agni-4 missile, which was notified by the Press Information Bureau (PIB). The Agni-4 is an intermediate-range ballistic missile with a range of 4,000 kilometers and can carry a payload of 900 kg. It is a very powerful missile.

Historically, whenever India has tested either Agni-4 or Agni-5 missiles, Chinese state media or the Chinese government has protested. Now, some of you may be wondering whether the statement made by Rajnath Singh hints at the possibility of India facing a “three-front war” in the future, with Pakistan, Bangladesh, and China. This concern is understandable, especially given recent developments in Bangladesh. We saw a Bangladeshi minister state that Bangladesh wants to resolve the issues related to the 1971 war with Pakistan. This is a rather surprising statement, especially since just a while ago, Sheikh Hasina was openly blaming Pakistan for the 1971 genocide and even wanted to internationalize the issue.

However, now there seems to be a U-turn in Bangladesh’s stance, with the interim government there expressing a desire to resolve all issues with Pakistan. Bangladesh has even started purchasing weapons from Pakistan, signaling a shift in its foreign policy. This could have a significant impact on India’s defense strategy. Furthermore, the Border Security Force (BSF) has recently asked Bangladesh to ensure that its people stay within their borders to prevent illegal immigration into India.

While a three-front war is not an immediate military concern, Bangladesh’s changing stance is certainly worth noting. The testing of Agni-4 at this time seems appropriate. Some might ask why Agni-5 wasn’t tested instead. Agni-5 is usually tested when a new technology, such as Multiple Independently-targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) technology, needs to be evaluated, as was done in a recent successful test. In contrast, Agni-4, with a shorter range, sends a clear message to India’s adversaries. Agni-5, with its longer range, often provokes a larger reaction from China, as China openly claims that the actual range of Agni-5 is much higher than India’s official claims of 5,000 kilometers.

Agni-6, which is still under development, will have the capability to strike almost any part of the world, except for the US and South America. However, for now, India’s primary defense concerns remain focused on China and Pakistan, and the successful test of Agni-4 sends a strong message to our adversaries.

Historically, whenever India has tested its long-range missiles, China has complained to the international community, especially highlighting that India has nuclear weapons and hasn’t signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Despite these protests, India’s missile tests generally don’t attract much concern globally, as India is seen as a democratic nation testing missiles purely for self-defense. In contrast, missile tests by countries like China, Iran, or Pakistan often lead to discussions of sanctions.

To sum up, while China may protest India’s missile tests, such complaints are largely ignored, as India’s democratic status and its policy of credible minimum deterrence provide reassurance to the international community.